Selecting a hand in Holdem is the most important
thing a player can do. By select the right hands a player can improve
his game by 70% on this factor alone. Lets look at flop possibilities
for certain hands.
Hitting the
Flop (pairs and draws)
Here are some basic statistics on hitting
flops.
One pair
29% or 2.5:1
Two Pairs
2% or 49:1
A Set (when holding
a pair in the hole)
11.8% or 7.5:1
Trips (two of a rank on the flop)
1.35% or 73:1
Full house
.09% or 1087:1
Four of a kind
.01% or 9799:1
A pair or better
32% or 2.1:1
A flush draw (with 2 suited cards under)
11% or 8.1:1
A flush draw (with
1 cards under, 3 flush flop)
1.1% or 91:1
A flush (with 2 suited cards under)
.84% or 118:1
A backdoor flush (getting
2 running suits) #
4.6% or 23:1
A 8 out straight draw (with hole connectors)
10.5% or 8.5:1
A straight (with hole
connectors)
1.31% or 76:1
An inside straight draw (with hole connector)
21.6% or 3.6:1
A flush or 8 out straight
draw (with hole connectors)
16% or 1:5.25
A backdoor straight (with 3 to the straight) *
2.96% or 32.8:1
Any unsuited hand flopping 2 pair, trips, full house, or quads
3.45% or 28:1
Any suited hand flopping 2 pair, trips, flush, full house, or quads
4.29% or 22.3:1
54o-JTo flopping 2 pair, trips, straight, full house, or quads
54s to JTs Flopping a 12-20 out hand, 2 pair, trips, straight, flush, full house, or quads
12.5% or 8:1
54s to JTs Flopping a non-combination straight or flush draw
13.225% or 6.5:1
54s to JTs flopping 2 pair, trips, straight, flush, full house, or quads
5.65% or 16.7:1
Note *: This assumes having 3 cards connected
between your hand and the flop. This is the chance of hitting the
runner runner straight by the river with the turn giving you an
open ended straight draw.
Note #: This assumes having 3 suits between your
hand and the flop. This is the chance of hitting the runner runner
flush by the river.
Now lets compare some flops with certain hands you could have.
Learn how to read a flop and see if it is worth while to continue
your hand. Many poor players will chase anything in the remote hope
of catching. When they do catch it can upset many better players
even putting them on tilt. But what they forget are all the times
that same player chased and missed. The net result is more money
for the better player.
Poker is a game of mistakes. How good players make their money
is by not making mistakes and taking advantage of those that make
mistakes.
Top pair with a flush draw
Your Hand: AK
The Flop: K
7 2
14 Outs: 9 for the flush and 5 to make two
pair or a trips
Analysis: This is an excellent flop for
this type of hand. You have top pair with top kicker. You
also have a draw to the nut flush. Bet and raise like crazy.
A draw and overcards
Your Hand: JT
The Flop: 3
9 8
15 Outs: 8 for the straight and 6 to make
a top pair. You also have a backdoor flush draw.
Analysis: The straight draw is really the
hand you want here. Hitting top pair might make someone else
a straight or two pair.
Top pair with a straight draw
Your Hand: 77
The Flop: 6
5 4
10 Outs: 8 for the straight and 2 for the
set.
Analysis: The straight is the better hand
to hit. Since you have two of the 7s most likely the other
players do not have a 7. Hitting a set probably will make
someone else a straight, but then you still have outs for
the full house.
Top pair with a dangerous board
Your Hand: AJ
The Flop: A
T 5
3 Outs: to make two pair or trips without
placing a flush on board.
Analysis: You are only looking at 1 out
for trip aces. A jack falling might give someone a straight
and if a spade falls you might be in trouble. But you have
to make the drawing hands pay to draw out on you.
A flush
Your Hand: 57
The Flop: K
3 9
0 Outs: Your hand is made.
Analysis: You flopped the flush. Bet and
raise with this hand as much as you can. Players with the
A and Q
will be chasing the better flush. Make them pay for it. You
might be against a better flush already so be careful.
The sucker end of the draw
Your Hand: 78
The Flop: 9
T 2
8 Outs: Your have 8 outs to the straight.
Analysis: You are at the bottom end of the
straight draw which is dangerous. Be sure the pot is giving
you proper odds to continue with this draw. If the board was
2 suited with many callers you are probably drawing to 3 outs.
You really want the 6 to fall and not the J.
Making two pair or trips
Your Hand: 78
The Flop: 8
Q 2
5 Outs: Your have 5 outs to two pair or
trips
Analysis: To continue with this hand you
need the pot to be very, very large to justify the odds. When
chasing this hand you have to be sure your two pair won't
help anyone else. In this example it is unlikely a 7 will
make anything for anyone.
Hitting a set with a dangerous
flop
Your Hand: 66
The Flop: 6
7 Q
7/10 Outs: You have 7 outs on the flop
and 10 outs on the turn to fill up or make quads.
Analysis: This is a strong hand and even
if two players are drawing to the straight and or flush you
are a 60% favorite. Bet and raise the flop, make the draws
pay. Slow down if the draw comes.
Hitting a set with a safe flop
Your Hand: QQ
The Flop: 2
Q 7
7/10 Outs: You have 7 outs on the flop
and 10 outs on the turn to fill up or make quads.
Analysis: At this point this hand is so
powerful you can consider slowplaying it as there are no draws
on board. You hope someone catches up. But if you did raise
before the flop you should bet out or it will look suspicious
to the other players.
Top pair with a dangerous flop
and bad kicker
Your Hand: 83
The Flop: 2
8 7
5 Outs: Your have 5 outs to two pair or
trips
Analysis: While you might have the best
hand now, against many callers you are far behind. Any player
with a draw and two overcards are a favorite against you.
You should fold this hand to any action.
Top pair with a dangerous flop
and bad kicker
Your Hand: A3
The Flop: A
8 7
5 Outs: Your have 5 outs to two pair or
trips
Analysis: This is a typical sucker hand.
You have top pair but your kicker is terrible and you have
few chances to improve. Also there are two draws out there
and the chance someone else has an ace with a better kicker.
Top pair
Your Hand: AT
The Flop: A
6 7
5 Outs: Your have 5 outs to two pair or
trips
Analysis: In an unraised pot this is a good
hand. You have only one possible draw out there but your kicker
is pretty decent. Bet and raise this hand. Be careful if with
many callers and a scare card hits.
Top two pair
Your Hand: KQ
The Flop: 5
Q K
4 Outs: Your have 4 outs to improve to
a full house and a backdoor flush draw.
Analysis: This is a very good hand and should
be played fast. Many players slow play this hand hoping to
sucker people in. Two pair should not be slowplayed as it
is still vulnerable. The backdoor flush draw is an extra to
this already strong hand.
K
7
