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Lesson: 51
Viewer Beware
Howard Lederer
March 6, 2006
Many of the people crowding the tournament circuit these days developed
their interest in serious poker from watching broadcasts of the
World Poker Tour and the World Series of Poker. With hole cards
shown as the hands are played out, viewers get to see how the best
players in the world ply their craft. They can then apply the lessons
they've learned in their own play.
In the last couple of years, I've noticed that some of the less
experienced players who have entered $10,000 buy-in tournaments
don't fully appreciate what they've seen on TV. Many are apt to
misapply the techniques they've witnessed. As a result, these players
find themselves on the rail early, wondering why a move that worked
so well for Phil Ivey or Chris Ferguson had such disastrous results
for them.
To avoid falling into this trap yourself, take note of two key
pieces of information the next time you sit down to watch the WPT
or WSOP: The number of players at the table and the stack sizes
relative to the blinds.
World Poker Tour final-table broadcasts start when six players
remain. Through the vast majority of tournaments, however, tables
are nine or 10-handed. When 10 people are at the table, you always
need to be concerned that someone holds a big pocket pair or Ace-King.
As a result, most good players tend to be cautious at full tables.
They won't get themselves in a lot of trouble with speculative hands
like a middle pocket pair or Ace-10. At a short-handed table, however,
the chances of running into a big hand are greatly diminished. When
play is three- or four-handed, a pro will likely play a hand like
pocket 9s very aggressively.
Usually, in the late stages of tournaments, the blinds are extremely
high when compared to the size of the stacks. For example, in the
recent WPT event from the Gold Strike in Tunica, when four players
remained, the average stack had about 1.4 Million in chips. This
may sound like a lot but, at that time, the blinds were 30,000 and
60,000 with a 10,000 ante. The short stacks, who had less than 1
Million each, couldn't afford to be patient. If they failed to play
for a mere 20 hands, their stacks would be cut in half.
As blinds increase, good players get more aggressive, making frequent
pre-flop raises while attempting to steal the blinds and antes.
They know that if they sit and wait for top-quality hands, the blinds
and antes will decimate their stacks. At these stages of tournaments,
you'll see a lot of attempted steals with second-rate hands. Other
good players, fully aware that their opponents may be raising with
very little, might re-raise or fight back from the blinds with similarly
modest holdings.
Short tables and high blinds create settings that necessitate near
constant aggression and continual action. So, for example, when
you see a pro re-raise all-in from the blinds with pocket 7s, it's
likely he's properly considered the situation and has made the best
available play. He's thought about the short table and high blinds,
determined that he probably has the best hand and, most importantly,
that his opponent likely can't call the re-raise. The same player
would treat the same hand very differently at an earlier stage of
the tournament.
The final factor to consider when watching televised poker is that
the shows are highly edited. At this year's WSOP, it sometimes took
15 hours and hundreds of hands to determine a winner. On ESPN, they
usually include about 20 hands in an hour-long broadcast. So, you
can be sure that much of the context if missing from these telecasts.
A call or re-raise that seemed odd on TV may have made perfect sense
in the course of the event. For instance, if an aggressive player
raised eight consecutive times on the button, the big blind may
have decided that he had to fight back with rags, just to let his
opponent know that he was willing to take a stand. It's not a play
that person would normally make, and it may look strange on TV but,
in context, the re-raise with 8-high made perfect sense.
I suggest that you TiVo the next poker event you plan to watch.
Keep track of the number of players and the size of the blinds.
By paying attention to the details, the big picture will likely
become clearer.
Howard Lederer

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