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Lesson: 31
Back to the Drawing Board
Perry Friedman
October 17, 2005
You are in the big blind with Ts-8s against a player who smooth-called
pre-flop. The flop comes K-X-X with two spades. What do you do?
You would like to make your flush, and you don't want to pay too
much to get there. Instinctively, you think checking is the best
way to get a free card, and you're right.
In fact, checking is the only way to get a free card, but it may
not give you the best opportunity to make your hand, nor will it
pay you maximum value when you make the flush.
Suppose your opponent bets the pot. Now you're getting 2-1 to call
for a 4-1 chance of making your hand. You don't even get to see
the turn card. You've been priced out.
What happens if you lead out with a small bet? If you're against
a player who likes to slow play or a player who will bluff you out
with a big bet, a small bet gives you the best chance of seeing
the turn.
How small is a small bet? Try betting between 1/3 and 1/4 of the
pot. If there is $300 in the pot and you bet $100, you are now getting
the right price to make your flush. If you bet $75, you are now
getting better than pot odds, and this doesn't account for your
implied odds, which take into account the amount of money your opponent
will bet or call on the turn and river. If you make your flush on
the turn, and your opponent is willing to call your $400 bet, you
are getting implied odds of $300 (current pot size on the flop)
+ $400 (expected amount your opponent will call on the turn) = $700
to $100 (your bet on the flop), or 7-1.
This is an even better play when your drawing hand is less obvious.
Suppose the flop is Q-9-6. Now you are drawing to the double gut
shot straight, where a 7 or a J makes your hand. While an 8 or a
K is an obvious scare card, a 7 looks like a card unlikely to have
helped anyone. (The risk factor here is that the J might give you
the "idiot end" of the straight against an opponent holding
K-J, and your 1/4 pot bet is exactly the right price for him to
call.)
In a tournament, this type of drawing strategy can become a riskier
and less profitable play, especially early on. Because you start
with a limited number of chips in tournament play, your odds need
to be closer to 5-1 or even 6-1 before you should consider risking
them on a draw, and potentially leaving yourself short stacked.
The important thing when drawing is to be the aggressor. Losing
initiative leaves you vulnerable to being priced out of the pot,
whether it's by a made hand or a bluff. If you want to see another
card at the right price, your best bet is to be the bettor.
Perry Friedman
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