From 2+2
(David Sklansky Forum)
Al Says: This article is a very important concept
in multi-table tournaments (MTT). I have noticed a large change
in how I placed in MTTs when I came to realize how important the
concepts below are.
Article: I've been reading the recent thread,
"what seperates big MTT winners from smaller ones." And
I can't help but thinking how you are all advised to be fish, and
so many are drinking in this advise as if it were God's Nectar.
Lemme tell you a little secret: Coin flips will not win
you any tourneys. Going AI with TT and you know your opponent
has AK isn't a "good thing". There was one poster in that
thread who replied most sagely, "so you're saying that you'd
rather play 52 tourneys with 2000 chips than 100 tourneys with 1000
chips for the same amount in buy-ins? I'll take the 100 tourneys
and 1000 chips." Right on, brother. Play poker, not the lotto.
Oh by the way, do the math on this: every tourney has registration
fees. If you are going to be flipping coins, you have to be able
to cover the registration fees with your odds. That means, 10% fees,
you have to be favored 55/45 for it be a push. Sure, sure, the advantage
of playing this way is that once you win that first coin flip, the
second doesn't knock you out, right? Bull!. Do you know why Vegas
always wins? Sure, the games are all favor the casino, but they
win because the have a functionally unlimited bankroll. They can
withstand variance, YOU CAN NOT!!! There is no amount of chip lead
that can help you withstand variance to the extent that you need
it to. If you play in this style, you are playing the lotto. My
brother has a saying, "the lottery is a tax on people who
are bad at math." Check your math, don't play the lotto.
Ok, so what's my answer? What's my secret? Alright, no one plays
like I do. This is a fact. I'm not the best player and trying to
emulate me will lead to a lot of trouble.... but I do know some
things about tourney poker. First, it is not about getting all your
chips in when you are ahead, it is about getting your opponent to
put in more chips than he should when he is behind. PF AI is the
most vulgar type of poker. I hate to engage in it, but sometimes
you do have to be ugly to win. Play the flop. See some cards, play
POKER!!!! Ok, putting in more chips than he should. Flop comes 3
to a flush. You have no flush cards, but you do have top pair. Based
on Tony's previous play, you think it likely that he has broadway
cards and so could easily be holding a nice flush draw. (true, he
could also be holding a flush, but we must take risks). Tony's action
leads you to believe that he does not have a made hand (whatever
that action is for Tony and this board). You bet the pot. Why? If
he calls he is getting 2:1 on his money, right? "But wait,"
you say, "he has a 35% chance of hitting his flush! That's
good pot odds!!" No, friends, he has a 20% chance of hitting
his flush, because we are going to play the next street the same
way. We bet the pot again on the turn. Will he call believing (correctly,
this time) that he is a 4:1 dog? He may, he may not, but if he does,
we've gotten him to accept terrible odds. Why? Because there are
no implied pot odds. If that flush card hits, we are done with the
hand (unless our read on Tony is that he DOESN'T have the flush,
and will fold to a certain style of bluff). Getting your opponent
to accept terrible odds, odds that would make a bookie chortle with
glee.
Getting your opponent to bet when he'd rather fold. "what?"
you say, "if he's gonna fold, he'll fold." Well, yes,
90% of the time this is true, but some times and with some players,
you can get them to bet a hand they have little interest in by using
certain tactics. Never bet. Players do this to me all the time.
I've got 37o in the BB and I'm dying for them to just bet so I can
see the next hand, but then the don't and I start thinking bad thoughts
like, "well, maybe I can BLUFF them out!!!" Believe me,
I've lost so many chips this way and even lost some tourneys betting
a hand I had eveery intention of folding after seeing the flop.
Find players like me, do this to them.
Getting your opponent interested in a pot he is way behind in.
Scary board, maybe you have a nice piece of it, maybe you only know
that you've got a better hand than your opponent. Now what you have
to do is play that hand like you are scared, ready and willing to
fold. Sometimes that means acting strong, other times it means acting
weak - depends on the opponent. But what you want is for your opponent
to put more chips into the pot than he ever imagined he'd be willing
to risk, given his holding.
Actually, that last point is my next point too. Getting your opponent
to play for higher stakes with inferior holdings. Raise to a callable
amount PF. We really don't mind seeing a flop with any holding that
we willingly play. One of my favorite lines is, "he must have
had 72o" I say this when someone goes all-in when there is
some 50 chips in the pot. He probably had a playable hand, but the
most he could get out of it was 50 chips. Well done sir. Now, how
much are you getting out of your money hands? Can you play them
in a way that will make them more profitable? I bet you can! Play
softer, allow calls. This does not mean limp. NEVER LIMP. But if
opponents are used to coming along for the ride when you triple
the blinds twice an orbit, let them stay in it with there inferior
holdings. Get more bets out of them. True, you are increasing the
chance that they will catch one of their five outs, but so what?!?
THOSE are the risks you should be taking!!! I love it when my opponent
calls down my 1/2 pot bets (which I'll make whether I've paired
or not). Really, it makes no sense for them to call down. I've either
got a better hand or a better draw, and they have no idea which,
but they are risking (or willing to risk) their entire stacks on
a couple of ducks!!!! Now we must learn who these players are so
we can check when we haven't paired.
Letting go. This is the most important thing. You kill your opponents
implied odds by folding when his card shows up. On the other hand,
you could be folding to a lot of bluffs, right? Wrong. You are folding
to a couple bluffs, sure, but only a small percentage of players
are capable of bluffing effectively when a danger card hits. Killing
implied odds is the only way my style of poker works. We've kept
them in at a price they shouldn't pay, but their miracle card has
come. They check to us. hmmm. I think I'll check behind. Am I calling
if I am out of position? Yes, no, maybe - depends on my holding,
his holding, his style of play. I am not afraid of danger cards
unless they help my opponent. If I put him on K3 and I hold AK,
I'm still betting the river. How do I know if it helped my opponent?
[censored], I don't know, I just trust my reads.
Early chip leads. Early chips leads mean so very little. It is
insurance. If I get beat on one hand, I'll not be knocked out. Ok,
that is valuable. But more often it simply means you'll be playing
more hands in a manner that risks more chips. Well, that's ok, but
playing a higher variance game does decrease the value of the chips
you've won. I have a saying, "Early chip leads have a way of
disappearing. You can open up your play and you will probably lose
your lead. Or you can sit back and wait, and you WILL lose your
lead. But, sometimes buying time is good enough." Which style
should you choose? Depends on the table, depends on the cards, depends
on how you feel.
Getting dragged into the money. I remember one party 350K tourney
in which I was knocked down to 390 chips with 2100 players remaining.
I never again had more chips than I started with (2500), but I finished
in the top 500. How? Patience. Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait,
wait, wait, wait, push, wait, wait, wait...10BB-6BB, I'm perfectly
happy folding AJo PF when another player raises. 6BB-4BB, still
folding AJo depending on raiser, but now I am stealing with Q9o
in the hijack seat. I'm really opening up with 6-4BB. 4BB>, accepting
any offer of a probable coin flip, and offering coin flips to any
that will take.
But see, none of this matters if you don't know how to play the
final table. I have played 1000s of SNGs, and I suggest you do the
same. And you got to play these so aggresively. Raises, re-raises,
steals with 37o, etc, etc. No one wants to bust out at this point
and they are folding far more than they should. Correction, they
are folding as they should, and as I would if I were in their shoes.
Well, I do playback a lot more than they do. There is a culinary
rule called FIFO, First In, First Out. It has to do with stock rotation,
but the words apply to poker. Either you are First In, or you get
out of there. And you SHOULD!!!! and so should they, but they don't
always, but that is ok too. I can't tell you all you need to know
about final tables. But PLEASE play SNGs before you play MTTs. |
