by Al Sousa (site owner)
For All Forms of Poker: Variance is the randomness of poker. One night you are unstoppable
and the next you can't win a hand with wired aces. For the average
mind it is hard to comprehend that variance can be so wide spread
over such a long period of time. But what players do not realize
is that it takes a small amount of variance to shift a winning player
to a losing player. Small mistakes in your game, or leaks, can be costly.
In no limit variance can take a larger swing because mistakes are more costly. You also can't measure how well you play based on a small sample of hands like 20,000. Many more factors come into play with no limit that can seriously affect variance.
Variance affects other players:
When you are running good others will make mistakes, increasing
the amount of money you win per hour. They will bluff less fearing
you're a "lucky player" or "its his night".
This allows you to bluff more successfully and read your opponents
better.
When you are running bad you will make more mistakes because of
frustration. Other players at the table will take notice your "bad
luck" and attempt to throw you off your game by being unpredictable.
They might bluff at you more often, call you down more often, perhaps
be more aggressive with a medium hands causing you to fold the winner
and lose more than you normally would against this player. We like
our opponents predictable and fearing us.
Typical Psychological Factors that Affect Variance:
Tilt: This can take form in folding too much, pushing to much, or simply winning too much and being overconfident. (minor to major)
Pre-flop mistakes: Playing the wrong hand in the wrong situation (minor)
Post-flop mistakes: Continuing a form of play that escalates the money lost, pushing hands to make up for lost money, or folding the best hand too much to pressure. (major)
Image: Not adjusting your image to table dynamics.
Table Selection: Realizing when to stay and when to go because the game has changed.
Money Fear: Playing with too little bankroll or playing stakes that are over your comfort level.
Other Players: Not adjusting to their style and taking advantage of their weakness, like tilt or money fear.
Know when to adjust:
A player must recognize when variance is affecting the game and
take advantage or minimalize their losses. If you are running good
attempt more bluffs on players that are running bad, fear you, or
are prone to fold more often than normal. Make sure the other players
realize you are running good but not in an arrogant way. You don't
want them upset at you, you want them to fear you. Pulling off these
plays will earn more money and make you look even luckier.
Other players might start playing worse, because you're so lucky, and will bluff less
and only raise with hands they know are ahead. This is their psychological
satisfaction of "I beat you finally and I'm making you pay!"
You now can easily read their hand and fold properly. You want them
to stay playing predictable.
If you are losing switch tables if you are online. If you are at
a live game take a break for a while. Let the other players forget
about your bad luck. Do not complain about how bad your luck is,
they might not have noticed before so why give them a clue. Avoid
going on tilt. If you feel like you are playing poorly and too upset
to play correctly quit for the night.
Another hint is to always buy in with more chips than the average.
Players joining the game after this point will assume you have been
winning and are a tough opponent or just lucky.
As always consider the player. A fish who is simply there for fun isn't usually affected or pays attention to how you are running.
How to combat variance:
To be successful one must mentally accept that variance is there
in poker. It only takes a small difference in hands won or lost to affect
the overall winnings of a poker player. One single bad beat can shift play dramatically and exponentially increase variance. Many times these swings
will occur several times during a long session, week, or month.
In the end good play will earn you the money, knowing when to take
advantage of variance, and when to minimalize the loses due to variance.
Variance Example in Limit : In the picture
notice the win at showdown at 46.94%. If an average is 53% that
is only a 9 hand difference in winning at showdown. This does not
count folding on the flop, turn, tilt, and other factors. But consider
that just those 9 hands at $48 a hand as a net loss at the river
is $432. Not that far off from the total loss of this example.
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