by Al Sousa (site owner)
Variance is the randomness of poker. One night you are unstoppable
and the next you can't win a hand with wired aces. For the mathematical
mind it is hard to comprehend that variance can be so wide spread
over such a long period of time. But what players do not realize
is that it takes a small amount of variance to shift a winning player
to a losing player.
Normally winning players at limit holdem are winning showdowns
around 52-55% of the time. This yields roughly about 2 big bets
per 100 hands player. Just a shift of a 3 percent points in either
direction can alter the money flow from winning to losing. Without
playing a lot of hands players can't see the swings in poker. They
might see that they are lucky or unlucky over a short period of
time. Usually when you have played around 100,000 hands is when
you begin to understand how variance can affect you.
Lets take an example of 10,000 hands played at a 3/6 game. At 2
big bets per 100 hands winning our player should win around $1,200
in 10,000 hands. We will make some assumptions saying that he puts
in $21 when going to showdown. If he wins he nets $27 on average.
If he loses he loses $48 ($27 for not winning and $21 of his own
money). Assuming our imaginary player is a good player we are looking
at seeing the flop on average of 17% lets say. We excluded when
the player wins without a showdown for the simplicity of the article.
17% of 10,000 = 1,700 hands played.
Lets say that with the 1,700 hands played you went to the river
1/3 of the time.
1/3 of 1700 = 561 hands that went to the river (showdown)
We will take 53.5% as our average win for 2 big bets per 100 hands.
53.5% of 561 hands = 300 hands won at the river (showdown).
Our solid player is winning about 300 hands. This is only 3% of
the 10,000 hands he could have played.
Now lets change the win at showdown just -3% to 50.5%.
50.5% of 561 hands = 283 hands won or 17 less hands won.
That is only a 17 hand difference in the 10,000 hands our player
participated in. This equates to a loss greater than most players
think. Not only has our player not won those hands but in fact he
lost money on those hands.
A difference of losing 17 more hands on the river is a swing of
$48 per hand. $21 for his own money and $27 for the money he did
not win.
17 X $48 = $816 = 0.65 big bets per 100 hands.
Our player is now winning only 0.64 big bets per 100 hands.
For the typical poker player this seems like a huge catch of bad
luck in cards. To play 10,000 hands online you would need to play
40 hours of 4 tabling 3/6. If our player was a full time pro this
would be a week's worth of bad luck. This is because 17 hands, on
average, that he should have won were losers on the river.
So instead of winning $1,200 for the week our player only won $384.
A difference of about 3 hands a day if he is playing 5 days of the
week 8 hours a day.
To play poker successfully you must understand that a small swing
in hands lost can equate to a large loss. Now if our player is prone
to going on tilt when he is losing he will start making mistakes.
Those mistakes will add to the variance even further making a losing
week even worse.
Variance affects other players:
When you are running good others will make mistakes, increasing
the amount of money you win per hour. They will bluff less fearing
you're a "lucky player" or "its his night".
This allows you to bluff more successfully and read your opponents
better.
When you are running bad you will make more mistakes because of
frustration. Also other players will take notice your "bad
luck" and attempt to throw you off your game by being unpredictable.
They might bluff at you more often, call you down more often, perhaps
be more aggressive with a medium hands causing you to fold the winner
and lose more than you normally would against this player. We like
our opponents predictable and fearing us.
Know when to adjust:
A player must recognize when variance is affecting the game and
take advantage or minimalize their losses. If you are running good
attempt more bluffs on players that are running bad, fear you, or
are prone to fold more often than normal. Make sure the other players
realize you are running good but not in an arrogant way. You don't
want them upset at you, you want them to fear you. Pulling off these
plays will earn more money and make you look even luckier.
Other players on tilt, because you're so lucky, will bluff less
and only raise with hands they know are ahead. This is their psychological
satisfaction of "I beat you finally and I'm making you pay!"
You now can easily read their hand and fold properly. You want them
to stay playing predictable.
If you are losing switch tables if you are online. If you are at
a live gane take a break for a while. Let the other players forget
about your bad luck. Do not complain about how bad your luck is,
they might not have noticed before so why give them a clue. Avoid
going on tilt. If you feel like you are playing poorly and too upset
to play correctly quit for the night.
Another hint is to always buy in with more chips than the average.
Players joining the game after this point will assume you have been
winning and are a tough opponent or just lucky.
How to combat variance:
To be successful one must mentally accept that variance is there
in poker. It only takes a small difference in hands won to affect
the overall winnings of a poker player. Many times these swings
will occur several times during a long session, week, or month.
In the end good play will earn you the money, knowing when to take
advantage of variance, and when to minimalize the loses due to variance.
Variance Example: In the picture
notice the win at showdown at 46.94%. If an average is 53% that
is only a 9 hand difference in winning at showdown. This does not
count folding on the flop, turn, tilt, and other factors. But consider
that just those 9 hands at $48 a hand as a net loss at the river
is $432. Not that far off from the total loss of this example.
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