From 2+2
(David Sklansky Forum)
Al Says: This concept might take a while to learn.
Variance can only really been completely seen in the long term.
Short term results do not mean as much as many new players think.
With a small fluctuation in variance many new players can think
in the wrong direction.
When I started playing poker after reading my first two books I
raked in $3000 in 5 weeks thinking I was already a pro. The money
made was just a slight postivie shift in variance.
Once you have played hundreds of thousands of hands, hundreds of
tournaments you come to realize what is written below. Making the
right play is important because that will make you a winner in the
long run. I have lose multiple tournaments in a row to bad luck,
but I did not feel sorry for myelf or complained. I know that I
played right, I read my opponent correctly, I put my chips in at
the right time with the far superior hand. Only luck prevailed...
on his damn 2 outer, GRRR!. How can I possibly be upset or disappointed
at myself. We all make mistakes, but its the player that makes the
least that rakes in the money.
Article: Because of my recent foray into backing
and coaching, I am now exposed to a large number of results from
a heterogeneous group of players at multiple limits. I watch a lot
of hand histories, and I look at a lot of spreadsheets. I get at
least 5, and often more than a dozen bad beat/bad run PMs or emails
every day.
This experience and exposure has taught me a great deal about the
difference between winners and losers. I am becomming a much better
player as a result of it. I'm going to share something that I have
learned which I feel may be the single most important key to playing
SNGs for a living.
The following is not at all meant to be a criticism of anyone who
has sent me a rant about running badly. I have certainly done my
share of complaining in the past. This is just an explanation of
something I have learned. I hope it will help you all, because it
has helped me.
Everybody will eventually run worse than they thought was possible.
The difference between a winner and a loser is that the latter thinks
they do not deserve it.
That which we shall not speak of has happened to me. It's going
to happen to you, too, if you play long enough. If you believe that
such a bad run exists only in the most improbable of statistical
wastelands, you will feel particularly unlucky while it's happening
to you. This will make you feel like you don't deserve what's happening.
"Why is this happening to me? Why is it lasting so long?
How can they play so poorly while I play so well as they continually
outdraw me? This doesn't make sense. It's not fair."
This type of internal dialogue is poisonous. It causes players
who have enough skill to beat the game to quit the game instead.
The only difference between a loser and a quitter is that at least
a loser is still in the action.
All of the players that I back and coach have the requisite skill
to beat SNGs for enough money to make a living. 90% of them are
currently winning. But I predict that less than 20% of them will
be consistently playing and consistently winning one year from right
now.
I look at how the names have changed on this forum over the years.
I've been on the 2+2 forum for around 5 years (under a different
name), and Fossilman was the only poster I can remember who stayed
around for more than 2 years. (I'm sure there are a few more, but
not many.) Obviously, he didn't leave because he quit or got loser...
but it's also quite obvious why he's the exception.
I am beginning to realize that most people don't have the psychological
fortitude or spiritual perspective to manage the vicissitudes of
this game. I also believe that of the very small number of professional
poker players who have been successful for more than a few years,
most of them are actually quite lucky. I believe that there are
many pros who will fail once they begin to experience average luck.
Now for the good news.
I think you can learn how to avoid this trap of psychological betrayal.
I think I'm beginning to learn it myself. It involves turning your
noise filter all the way up. There are only two signals emitted
from the poker universe:
1. The universe will unfold as it should
2. If you play the right way, and your opponents do not; you will
win.
Everything else is noise, and to make too much of anything that
doesn't expressly involve the two above facts is to pave the road
to failure.
Poker has nothing to do with good luck or bad luck, fairness or
unfairness; and there is no such thing as the unbelievable.
It is what it is, fellow warriors. Learn which side you want to
be on, and be there as often as possible. Assess your position in
this regard as frequently and precisely as possible... but stand
firm and calm. Resolve is rewarded. Chafe is the mark of a loser. |
