From 2+2
(David Sklansky Forum)
Al Says: This was a good topic because it addresses
an important issue players face all the time in no limit tournaments.
I agree with Raymer on this one.
SITUATION: Pokerstars NL Hold'em tourney, 200$+15$,
201 entrants, 27 payed. 1st place 1s 11,055$.
40mins into the tourney, Level III, Blinds at 25$/50$, 154plrs
left.
Stack size:
Seat 1: (290 in chips)
Seat 2: (4475 in chips)
Seat 3: (1515 in chips)
Seat 4: (2205 in chips) Player X
Seat 5: (4205 in chips) Button
Seat 6: (375 in chips) SB
Seat 7: (2200 in chips) BB
Seat 8: (1605 in chips)
Seat 9: (1375 in chips)
Folded to Player X which has AKo on the CO and made a 5x the BB
raise to 250$, Buton re-raised 450$ more to 700$.
Player X: Now what? He has me covered and as position
on me. All I know about the button is that he won a couple pots
pre-flop and on the flop by being agressive whit position.
If I fold AK, I'm left me whit 1,255$ whit blind raising to 50$/100$
soon. Not a hopeless position.
Calling here leaves me whit 815$ to see the flop on a 1,475$ pot
whit the blinds, trying to hit an Ace or King. I might call if i
had more money to play with and had position.
Moving-in seem the best option since I get to see 5 cards. And
it "annouces" AA, KK or AK. So I now put the pressure
on my opponent. If he have a big ace, I'm way ahead. Any PP is a
50/50 shot and he can't be sure I don't have Aces or Kings.
I moved-in, he called whit 88 and I missed. Got busted in 154th.
Was my conclusion correct? I found is calling whit 88 pretty weak
but he got away whit it i'm out. Was it too early in the tourney
to make such moves considering loose players are still in? A friend
of mine insist I should have just called but I argued folding was
better move then calling in that spot. What would you have done
and why???
Greg Raymer responds: Because of your chip count,
you are in a tough spot. Given the positions, he can put you on
a steal, so AK is too good of a hand to fold here, IMO. I think
there are two viable plays, the one you made, and the stop-and-go.
The stop-and-go is to call now, and then bet the flop, even when
you miss. This greatly increases your chances of beating a hand
just like 88. When the flop comes J52, and you bet all-in, he'll
have a tough call to make, as hitting that J or Q or whatever will
often look very believable. If you are against AA or KK, you will
get called and most likely lose, but that's no worse than getting
it all in preflop. If he was playing a weak-mediocre A, and if he
would've folded it preflop, then this play is bad if he hits that
kicker and calls you postflop. However, in this case, given the
size of your all-in compared to the pot, he is potstuck, really,
and will probably always call.
The real loss in this play is when he folds a hand like AQ postflop,
a hand which you're beating badly enough that you want him to call
(the chips you win at risk are worth more than the certain chips
if he folds). However, again given the size of your raise, while
you want him to call with AQ postflop, you didn't want him to call
preflop, and you can't have it both ways (very often).
One thing I would do is raise less preflop. Here
you raised 1/6th of your stack. That is an awkward amount. If you
had made it T150 preflop, and then got raised to T450 or so, you
could've made a substantial reraise and he maybe folds preflop.
Also, when you're stealing in the future, it works better if you
can do it for less, and if you raise less with your good hands,
this will disguise your steals.
Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan) |
