by Al Sousa (site owner)
This article really applies to any hand you raise before a flop
with two big cards, usually AK or AQ. How do you play them when
you miss? When should you fold top pair top kicker? Playing a hand
like AK is tricky when the board does not favor you. I will show
you how I handle it.
When you play a hand like AK or AQ and miss the flop you really
have to look at the type of player you are up against, what hands
he plays, and the type of flop.
You have A K
and are out of position:
Opponent: A loose player that calls down too much
with any piece of the board, maybe ace high is his hand is AK, AQ,
AJ, AT. This is very typical in many games even as high at live
20/40 from what I have seen.
flop comes Q7 2.
You bet he calls. Now think about the flop and what he possibly
has here. Thats a pretty dry flop so MOST likely he has a pair,
either wired or hit the flop, and you are behind. Your judgement
to bet the turn depends on if you feel your opponent will fold and
what card comes.
Turn Card #1 Q72J
If a jack or comes on the turn you might consider betting again
since now you have up to 10 outs (A, K, T) and he might fold a lower
pair with 2 paint on the board. Now if he calls here you are most
likely behind. Consider this board is now all rainbow, no draws
from the flop, and the opponent is still calling.
Turn Card #2 Q72Q
The queen pairing for you on the turn is actually good. You should
bet again. If your opponent holds a Q he will raise and make your
decision easy and now you fold. But lets say your opponent holds
a hand like 66. Now you potentially have 9 outs. Any (A, K, 7) will
win you the hand vs the 66.
Turn Card #3 Q725
This is probably the worst kind of turn card AK can get. You have
no draw and only 6 outs. Here your action really depends on your
image and your opponent. Did he hesitate calling the flop? If so
you might want to bet again. If the loose opponent called the flop
bet with easily and quickly usually it means he holds a pair and
will not fold. If you bet the turn again and he calls easily again
be prepared to give it up on the river.
Turn Card #4 Q726
This turn card can mean many things to your opponent. Lets say your
loose opponent was hesitant calling the flop you you decide to bet
the turn hoping he folds because you sense weakness. Now he quickly
calls without hesitation, maybe he checks his hand when he does.
Watch him on the river to see if he looks disappointed. It is very
possible he picked up a draw on the turn. In the loose player's
mind, a hand like 98
is a totally reasonable to call with on the flop. In his mind he
has 22 outs to pick up a draw and 6 outs to pick up a pair vs AK.
Thats more than half the deck that helps him. If your actual holding
was exactly AK
or a hand similar he actually has a pot equity of 29% on the flop.
But considering your range of holdings are much more it makes the
play bad.
Remember to consider your image and the other player. Now lets
change the opponent.
Opponent: Loose player that calls down too much
with any piece of the board, any ace in his hand, or calls the
flop
"for just one more card". These players are not uncommon.
This kind of opponent you should bet again on the turn. His range
of hands are so diverse because he is willing to call a flop with
nothing you are ahead most of the time. He could hold a hand like
98,
A4,
or K8
hoping to improve to a draw or pair on the turn. Now his holdings
are large and you beat most of them.
River Play vs a dry board: Lets say you bet the
dry flop your opponent called, on the turn you bet and your loose
opponent calls. The river card comes another blank (like pairing
the board). How should you play the river? I would check to a loose
passive player because he will call with a pair but might fold with
any ace. He will check when you check. If he has top pair he will
bet. Its pretty simple and you should give up the pot.
If your opponent is loose but can be aggressive and can bluff when
sensing weakness then you have to make a judgement call on the river
based on your image, your opponent's mental state, his possible
holdings, his playing style, and how he reacted to the board. Would
he fold 44 on the river on a QJ923
board to a river bet?
If you have a bluffing tricky opponent and a drawing board you
might want check and allow him to try and bluff on the river. He
won't call a bet with a busted draw but he will call with a pair.
You lose when behind and win nothing when ahead. But if your opponent
will bet the river on a busted draw then check/calling is worth
it. You lose the same amount when behind but gain a big bet when
ahead and he bluffs. Also you might frustrate your opponent when
you call his bluff and might make him tilt later.
Coordinated Flop: Now change that flop to 9
8 4.
This opens up a whole lot of hands a player might have. QT, QJ,
JT, 76, flush draw, 56, or maybe a pair. Thats a lot of hands he
would be calling the flop with and most of them you are still ahead.
Technically he can be the favorite, on average 15 outs, but the
pot is so large it is worth to bet and you do not want to give your
opponent the free card. Make the drawing hand pay to beat you. Betting
again on the turn is right if a safe card comes like a 2, 3, or
5 maybe.
River Play vs a drawing Board:
Now on the river you have to look at what came. Lets say a T
fell on the 9
8 4
board. Should you check/call or check/fold the river? It now is
MOST likely he has at least a pair if not a made draw. I would check
and probably fold in most cases if my opponent bets. This depends
highly if my opponent bluffs a lot or has bet a lot in these situations.
He can't always hit a piece of the board. Most weak opponents when
they miss will check behind for the free showdown. If 2 safe cards
came on the turn and river now you should be more likely to check/call
if your opponent if capable of betting a busted draw.
When two or more opponets call preflop, the 2&2 rule:
The rule was taught to me by a poker expert. It stands
for "2 callers or 2 overs". This is a simple
formula I use vs 2 preflop callers. In almost all situations this
applies but is still dependant on your opponent's styles and the
flop.
You raise preflop with a hand like AK and get two callers, usually
one in front and one behind. You miss the flop how should you handle
it? Bet into them with AK, Ace high. The reason is that the pot
is so large, usually 6.5 small bets, that betting the flop is right
due to pot odds. Are either of your opponents ahead of you 85% of
the time? No they are not so bet.
If you get "2" callers and dont improve
on the turn and have no draws you're done. Most likely one of them
has at least pair. 1 flop caller with a drawing board bet again
generally. Its a matter of how many times the opponent has a draw
compared to a pair vs the pot size. While you probably lose most
of the time the pot is large enough to compensate for the times
you do win.
Lets say the BB calls and another person calls. 6.5:1 on the flop
you bet 1 caller. Turn is 8.5:1 and there is a draw, bet again.
You are now getting over 4:1 on your bet. You probably are behind
but are you behind 75% of the time? You also win around 10% of that
time when you are behind on the river when the A or K come.
Wired Pairs and the 2&2 rule: This rule also
applies to pairs. You raise 1st in in MP2 with 88.
the BUTTON and BB call.
The flop comes 9Q2.
BB checks you should bet. If you get "2"
callers with "2" overs your done with
the hand in most cases. 1 caller 2 overs OR 2 callers with 1 over
bet again on the turn GENERALLY. This depends on the flop. A flop
like AK2 and 1 weak player calls the flop you're are MOST likely
way behind (Ax, KQ-K9s, 2 paint) . Loose players love hands like
Ax but also would respect an A or K on the flop most of the time.
Now if they have a pair like 66 they will be too afraid to bet on
the turn so they will most likely check it down anyways.
River play with pairs: Usually I will check/call
depending on the board. 1 over and no obvious draws I would check/call
unless my opponent is capable of calling down with any pair or ace
high, then I value bet because most of his of calling hands are
weaker than mine. At times you will have to fold the river. This
is a real life example of a hand I played during an online game.
A single weak player called me preflop and all the way to the river,
I was on the button.
I had: 99
The board was Q6TJ4.
I had position in this hand and he bet on the end. Looking at this
board what can I beat except a bluff or a lower pair. I decided
to fold the hand. Notice that since I raised preflop AK was a very
possible hand for me and there is QJT showing so I would have to
call the river if I had it and even a weak player knows that. 90%
of the hands the opponent had here beats my hand. Also is he capable
of bluffing on this very dangerous board when I could have any hand
from AA to a set, or the nut straight?
3-4 preflop callers and your AK misses: Play from
here depends on a number of factors, mostly the flop.
Take a flop such as T
6 2
and I have AK.
In this case I am betting if 1st to act. I have 2 backdoors and
2 overs. Most likely the 6 and 2 didnt help my opponents. I might
get an A2 to fold or a 65, maybe. With this flop I am still 34%
likely to win the hand vs any single opponent so against 3 it is
not much less and the pot is a nice size, around 8 small bets. If
I dont improve on the turn I check. I pick up a flush draw, K, or
A I bet again GENERALLY. Also by betting you increase your chance
to win the pot later on down as other missed hands will fold.
Now I have AK
and the flop is 9
8 4.
I would check and almost always fold vs 3+ opponents. There are
no other outs, no backdoors, no nothing.
When you have position with AK or AQ and a single opponent:
With position and missing the flop this is an easier play. With
two opponents follow what I said above. Sometimes you will bet sometimes
check depending on the board and the players.
FLOP: Opponent checks.. you bet.. he calls
TURN: Opponent checks.. you bet.. he calls
RIVER: Opponent checks.. you check unimproved free showdown... simple.
In this case with position on a broken board you have to evaluate
if your opponent will call down with A high and a crappier kicker.
But if you plan on calling the river then you might as well bet
the turn. One exception is if your opponent is tricky. If he is
willing to check-raise top pair on turn or check-raise bluff on
the turn then it is better to check the turn and call the river
bet. Usually tricky opponents like to bluff so by giving him a free
card it does not hurt you much and you might gain a bet from him
as a bluff on the river. Since he bluffs a lot his range of hands
claling the flop are huge and not necessarily a drawing hand or
pair.
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