From 2+2
(David Sklansky Forum)
Al Says: I find the concepts below can be more
important than the cards you hold in your hand. I have been in tournaments
where I could steal from the blinds everytime and maintain myself
till the big hand comes around, because the blinds were playing
too tight. Then in other tournaments I couldn't play a hand because
an aggressive player on the right kept raising before me. In this
case I lost many chips because I could not steal. Even though the
aggressor had medium holdings, most of the time my holdings were
worse, but if I was first to raise my hand was good enough for its
position. In just these two cases the swing in chips was enourmous.
All beause of the players at the table.
Article: The importance of the cards in your hand
is a function of the player you are up against and the table dynamics
invovled.
Know the Player: what kind of player is he? Is
he an aggressive player willing to lay down reasonable good hands
because he knows that his pot steals will continue to work? Is he
an aggressive player willing to accept any favorable pot odds situation?
Is he a tight player entering into pots with good hands and is unwilling
to let go of them? Does he refuse to be pushed around? Will he play
back at you occasionally? Will he let go of his cards to a river
bet, or will he call down here?
The problem is that in a MTT, we rarely get enough information
to know what he does with certain cards in certain situations. We
never know the strength of the cards he folds (even when he says
"I folded AQ" on a QT8 board - sure buddy) So we must
extrapolate. We must watch how he responds to bets, what hands he
shows down by making a value bet, just call with, or raise with.
If an opponent doesn't raise the river with trips, you can bet into
him with two pair (and safely fold to a raise). Is your opponent
afraid to bet, but willing to call down with 2nd button?
When you bet after the flop (and sometimes before the flop), your
bets should be tailored to the individual you are up against. If
you want to build a pot, know how much he'll be willing to call.
If you want a fold, how much will it take against this particular
opponent? Will he be inclined to believe an All-in, or is he inclined
to see all-in as a bluff? Many of these questions go to the core
of the individual you are up against. What kind of person is he?
Is he snide and sarcastic? Positive and trusting? Some of these
questions are quite easily answered just by watching the dialogue
box.
Table Dynamics: Believe it or not, the strength
of your hand, the strength of your opponent's hand, your relative
aggressiveness, and the board are not the only things that determine
who wins a hand. Table dynamics come into play. How does the opposition
view you? Not what is your table image, how does that particular
person view you and how do you expect him to respond to your bets/calls
based on his perception of you. Table image is important, but how
your table image effects your opponent is even more important. If
you are seen as a bluffer, will your opponnent be more inclined
to playback at you or just call you down when he has a hand (or
doesn't). Again, this is very important because it determines our
action. If I am up against an opponent I believe is just waiting
to playback at me, I may just check down the entire hand. Conversely,
if I am up against someone who will call me down with Ace good kicker
(remember, he may not play this way against others) I will continue
to bet the river with a hand as bad as 3rd button (but I'm not betting
pairless anymore).
How your opponent plays against you is different from how he plays
against anyone else. Be aware of the rest of the table. Just because
a player shows down ducks, doesn't mean that he'll always call down
with any pair, it may just mean that he has table dynamics with
the player he is up against - pay attention to this. If two players
like to go to war, it can be both very dangerous and very profitable
to get caught in the middle. We've all seen the player who's been
calling despite heavy action the whole way, put in a bet on the
river "from out of nowhere" because he flopped top set
on the flop.
Pay attention to tilt. This is so obvious that everyone knows it,
but it deserves a line here too. There are so many forms of tilt
- postitive tilt, negative tilt, player-based tilt, desperation
tilt, depression tilt. Pay attention. Is a player consistantly getting
played back at and keeps calling with a losing hand? There will
come a point where that player will now fold top pair to a raise.
If you can spot that point, and you have a relationship with that
player that allows a fold, you can, at that point, raise with any
two. I've had players flash me top pair - players that are usually
calling stations, but have experienced a run of tough luck (usually
when they do this I was expecting/hoping for a call).
Waiting for the perfect hand against the perfect opponent: There
are times in a tourney when I "just know" that if I can
get a hand of this strength against this opponent I can make a killing.
I'm DYING to get into a pot with them, but I am waiting too. When
it comes, and it rarely comes, it usuaully plays out just like I
thought it would. Why? becaues I've known how to play this hand
against this opponent for the past hour. I've checked called all
the way to the river with a big overpair and I've bet out a 3-flush
board with bottom two without position safe in the knowledge that
I should have the best hand both times AND that I've extracted the
maximum in each situation.
Word of caution: One of my poker sayings is "spotting
a tell is a good way to convince yourself to throw more money into
a lost pot". Following this advice - playing the player
not the cards - it can get you into some rough spots. Players on
this forum have heard me say, "my read on him was way off."
This is most common when I am correct on estimating hand strength,
but incorrect in judging his action. Two examples: 33 in the SB.
MP3 raises. By the size of his raise (relative to his stack and
previous action I've seen) I judge him to have a hand of order of
ATo or AXs. I reraise myself all-in (I've got him covered by a couple
chips) to a bet a little better than 3X his bet. I expected a fold.
I thought he would look down, know that he was probably dominated,
and give it up. I was not hoping for a call nor did I believe I'd
get one. Sure enough he calls with A9o. (and laughs at my 33 when
I knock him out....) My read was WAY off. I missed that he had reached
the desperation point and would call despite knowing that he was
likely a 70:30 dog. Another time a solid player raises to 1/5 his
stack UTG+1. He is agro and I know that he'll make this play with
hands as weak as JTs or 22. I also know that he is very capable
of laying hands down and is cognasent of situational bets. When
I go AI from the SB with K6s with a stack that will knock him out,
I expect him to fold. I think he's folding hands as good as AQo
here or 99. Ironically, he calls and turns up AQo. I'm still surprised
he called with that hand given my read on him, and I am still not
sure I can change that read - I think he must have been on some
form of tilt.
The size of your bets and the pots you enter into should be related
to the player you're up against and the table dynamics that exist
between you. Know how to milk certain players. Know how to playback
at others. Know who to be careful with and when extra care is needed.
Identify breaking points, and be thinking about the perfect hand
to have against each particular opponent (BTW this can sometimes
be 68s). Check the hand history, see what players are calling down
with. Be aware of the emotional state of your opponent. You can't
win many tournements based on the strength of your cards alone,
you need to develop these (and other) skills. |
