YOUR PRIMARY CONCERN
By Guy Downs
From Nettbetter.com
In this article we’re going to focus on what your primary
concerns are when you flop a decent hand a pot that is either already
large or being contested multi way pot. By multi way, we mean a
pot that either a) has four or more players currently contesting
it, or b) a pot that already contains nine or more small bets.
First, realize that the size of the pot, along with the playing
abilities of your opponents, will often dictate how an advanced
player chooses to play a hand. If an advanced player has red aces
in the hole, for example, and the flop comes Ks 8h 3d, the expert
player will often play this hand differently in a large or multi-way
pot than he would in a small pot, or one being contested by only
one or two other players. Why is this, you ask? To help you understand,
let me explain by way of example.
Let’s say you have the two red aces, and let’s say
the flop comes as it did above; i.e., Ks 8h 3d. Further, let’s
assume that before the flop a player flipped ten one hundred dollar
bills into the pot, and told you and your opponents to ‘go
ahead and play for it’. In a case such as this, your playing
decisions should be guided by a singular objective; namely, to knock
as many players out of the pot as possible. The more players you
can knock out, the greater your chances are of scooping this monster
pot. Further, notice that your opponents couldn’t hold a single
hand that’s ‘drawing dead’ to your hand, since
even a horrible hand like 7s 2d could catch two pair, or a goofy
straight, on the turn and river. With a pot already this big, you
don’t really care about making it any bigger; what you do
care about is winning it as soon as possible.
Once you’ve determined your objective—and by the time
the pot gets big, you will have already done so—it’s
up to you to decide how best you can accomplish your objective.
Typically, you’ll have two choices; either to dump as much
money into the pot as possible on the flop, with the hopes that
your strong play will dissuade your opponents from continuing, or
to play your hand slow on the flop with the intention of springing
to life on the turn when the bet doubles. Below we’ll illustrate
a few examples of when you should choose the first route, and when
you should choose the second.
Hand 1: You have Kd Ks in the hole, and are in
middle position. The first player calls, as does the next. Everyone
in between you and the second caller folds, and you raise. Two players
behind you call the raise cold, the small blind folds, the big blind
calls, and the two original callers call. There are six of you going
to the flop, with 12 ½ small bets in the pot. The flop comes
Qs 8h 5d. The first two players check, you bet, and the two players
behind you just call. The big blind folds, the first caller pre-flop
folds, but now the second pre-flop caller check raises you. What
should you do?
Answer: Re-raise. This seems like a no-brainer,
but upon closer inspection you’ll see that if a couple factors
were slightly different you could construct a strong case for just
calling here with the intention of raising the turn when the check-raiser
bets. The first key here is that there are two players left to act
behind you, neither of which have shown any strength. By three-betting
here you have a chance of getting at least one, and maybe both,
of these players to fold, thereby leaving you heads up in a 20 ½
small bet pot against a player who you probably (but not always)
have beaten. The second key is that the there is no flush draw possible
on the flop, which further indicates that your opponents do not
hold hands that they would gladly pay an extra two more bets to
continue with. If the flop came Qs 8h 3s you might worry that one
of your three opponents held two spades in the hole. In this case
you might want to just call the raise, and then raise the turn (or
bet if your opponent checks) if a third spade didn’t hit the
board.
When deciding whether or not to raise here, the primary question
with which you need to be concerned is this: ‘How likely is
it that playing my hand strong now will persuade my opponents to
fold?’ The higher the probability of this happening, the more
often you should raise. In order to determine how likely it is that
your opponents will fold, try this little exercise; ask yourself
the following questions, and assign an answer between one and five.
1) My opponents play 1) very badly 5) very well
2) The board is 1) very coordinated 5) not very
coordinated
3) The pot is 1) huge 5 fairly small
4) The pot is being contested by 1) many players 5)
only a few players
If you’re answers are more towards the ‘5’s
than the ‘1’s, be more inclined to play your hand strong
from the start. If the answers typically fall more towards the ‘1’s,
you should consider waiting for the turn to try and knock out your
opponents. The reason for this is that the closer your answers are
to the ‘1’s, the less likely it is that significant
flop action is going to get anyone out. As a result, you’d
rather wait and see the turn before committing a ton of chips to
the pot.
EXAMPLE 2:
You have Ad As on the button. Two middle position players call,
the player to your right raises, you three-bet, both blinds call,
the two middle position players call and the player to your right
caps it at four bets. All call. Six players to the flop for 24 small
bets. The flop comes Jh 9h 6s. All check to the player on your right
who bets. What is your play?
Answer: Call, and wait for the turn to raise.
The keys to the hand are this: first, by capping it before the flop,
you can usually put the player to your right on a big pair in the
hole. This means you can be fairly confident that he’ll bet
the turn again if you just call the flop bet, which will give you
a chance to raise. Second—and this is very important--, there
aren’t many hands your opponents could have that would incline
them to continue on for one bet, but fold for two bets. This again
is an argument against raising. If the flop were less coordinated
you might want to consider raising here, since at that point there
would be a large number of possible hands that your opponents would
like to continue with for one bet but not two. But not with this
flop. It’s fairly coordinated, and the hands you would like
to have fold—namely inside straight draws, and hands like
As 9s and 5c 7c--- aren’t going to fold here for two bets.
Remember, the pot is now huge. Anyone who has any piece of the flop
is going to take a look at the turn regardless of how bad their
hand is. But, by waiting to raise on the turn, you’re going
to force your opponents to call two big bets cold if they want to
soldier on. So, while playing the flop strongly won’t get
anyone out, playing the turn strongly just might.
Yes, you run the risk of getting outdrawn by a player who would
have folded for two bets on the flop. But sometimes you just have
to take that chance. If your options are to either a) playing the
hand in a way such that your opponents will see the turn 90% of
the time, but only see the river 20% of the time, or b) playing
your hand in a way such that your opponents will see the turn 60%
of the time, and the river 60%, you would typically choose route
‘a’.
As with most poker decisions it’s often hard to make the
right play all the time. Even the pros make mistakes. But if you
remember your objective—i.e., ‘What manner of play will
get my opponents to fold the fastest’—you’ll find
yourself making the right decision more often than not.
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